Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 6 at the 83

New York Jets 3 – Cleveland Browns 16

(9:09) 4-L.Edwards punts 49 yards to CLE 34, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.33 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +1.02 EP
57% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 83, worth -4.82 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model