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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 4 at the 49

Cleveland Browns 16 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(11:07) 7-J.Gillan punts 36 yards to NYJ 13, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

The Three Options

GO +0.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.95 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.85 EP
KICK -1.36 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.86 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 14, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP