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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 9 at the 28

New York Jets 0 – Cleveland Browns 13

What Actually Happened

(3:00) 9-S.Ficken 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO +0.68 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.79 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 28, worth -1.07 EP
KICK +1.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 38, worth -1.69 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model