Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 3 at the 80

Buffalo Bills 28 – New York Giants 14

(:35) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 40 yards to NYG 40, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.09 EP

57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.14 EP
43% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 80, worth -2.72 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model