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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 8 at the 40

Buffalo Bills 28 – New York Giants 14

What Actually Happened

(4:46) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 27 yards to NYG 13, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.63 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 40, worth -1.48 EP
KICK +0.22 EP
  • 53% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.36 EP
  • 47% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.23 EP
PUNT +0.13 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model