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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 10 at the 70

New York Giants 7 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(9:40) 9-R.Dixon punts 45 yards to BUF 25, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 23-M.Hyde to BUF 25 for no gain (17-C.Core).

The Three Options

GO -1.65 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.42 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 70, worth -3.80 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 28, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model