Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 18 at the 70

Buffalo Bills 21 – New York Giants 7

(1:32) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 63 yards to NYG 7, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 80-T.Jones to BUF 33 for 60 yards (33-S.Neal).

The Three Options

GO -2.16 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.28 EP
73% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 70, worth -3.82 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model