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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 10 at the 23

Washington Commanders 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(2:51) 3-D.Hopkins 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +0.43 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.96 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 23, worth -1.18 EP
KICK +1.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 33, worth -1.94 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model