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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 12 at the 53

Washington Commanders 20 – Philadelphia Eagles 32

What Actually Happened

(1:25) (Shotgun) 8-C.Keenum pass short right to 25-C.Thompson ran ob at PHI 35 for 18 yards [91-F.Cox].

The Three Options

GO -0.38 EP
What Happened
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.25 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 53, worth -1.35 EP
KICK -0.38 EP
  • 23% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.43 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -1.22 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 15, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model