Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 17 at the 71

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(8:53) 1-C.Johnston punts 52 yards to WAS 19, Center-45-R.Lovato. 18-T.Quinn ran ob at WAS 35 for 16 yards (1-C.Johnston). PENALTY on WAS-50-T.Vallejo, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at WAS 30.

The Three Options

GO -1.99 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.93 EP
72% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 71, worth -3.93 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model