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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 4 at the 4

Philadelphia Eagles 29 – Washington Commanders 20

What Actually Happened

(3:12) 4-J.Elliott 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +2.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.97 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 4, worth -0.16 EP
KICK +1.98 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.65 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP