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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 10 at the 73

Washington Commanders 20 – Philadelphia Eagles 21

What Actually Happened

(4:50) 5-T.Way punts 58 yards to PHI 15, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 29 for 14 yards (55-C.Holcomb).

The Three Options

GO -2.41 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.77 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 73, worth -4.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 31, worth -1.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model