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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 9 at the 74

Washington Commanders 20 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

What Actually Happened

(5:32) 5-T.Way punts 44 yards to PHI 30, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 47 for 17 yards (57-N.Sundberg).

The Three Options

GO -2.48 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.44 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 74, worth -4.43 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 32, worth -1.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model