Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 10 at the 75

Washington Commanders 17 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

(2:33) 5-T.Way punts 57 yards to PHI 18, Center-57-N.Sundberg, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.32 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.67 EP
68% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 75, worth -4.18 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model