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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 2 at the 29

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Washington Commanders 10

What Actually Happened

(10:52) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete short left to 17-A.Jeffery (94-D.Payne).

The Three Options

GO +1.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.35 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 29, worth -1.24 EP
KICK +1.11 EP
  • 79% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 39, worth -1.94 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model