4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 8 at the 53

Tennessee Titans 3 – Cleveland Browns 6

What Actually Happened

(2:26) 6-B.Kern punts 46 yards to CLE 7, Center-48-B.Brinkley, downed by TEN-30-C.Milton.

The Three Options

GO -1.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.53 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 53, worth -3.24 EP
KICK -2.23 EP
  • 19% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.43 EP
  • 81% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -3.08 EP
PUNT -1.15 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 15, worth -1.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model