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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 13 at the 48

Cleveland Browns 13 – Tennessee Titans 36

What Actually Happened

(5:41) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short left to 13-O.Beckham.

The Three Options

GO -0.52 EP
What Happened
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.32 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 48, worth -2.17 EP
KICK -0.94 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.20 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 14, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.38 EP