Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 9 at the 93

Tennessee Titans 15 – Cleveland Browns 6

What Actually Happened

(5:58) 6-B.Kern punts 44 yards to CLE 49, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds. PENALTY on CLE-26-G.Williams, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CLE 49. Penalty on CLE-35-J.Whitehead, Illegal Use of Hands, declined.

The Three Options

GO -3.18 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +0.43 EP
60% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 93, worth -5.57 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (110 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model