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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 11 at the 73

Tennessee Titans 10 – Cleveland Browns 6

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 6-B.Kern punts 70 yards to CLE 3, Center-48-B.Brinkley, downed by TEN-48-B.Brinkley.

The Three Options

GO -2.18 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.62 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 73, worth -4.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 31, worth -1.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model