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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 13 at the 75

Cleveland Browns 6 – Tennessee Titans 10

What Actually Happened

(3:38) 7-J.Gillan punts 47 yards to TEN 28, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 10-A.Humphries.

The Three Options

GO -1.96 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.00 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 75, worth -3.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 32, worth -1.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model