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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 11 at the 56

Tennessee Titans 10 – Cleveland Browns 6

What Actually Happened

(5:13) 6-B.Kern punts 46 yards to CLE 10, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 25-D.Hilliard to CLE 28 for 18 yards (44-K.Correa).

The Three Options

GO -1.29 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.75 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 56, worth -3.21 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 17, worth -0.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model