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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 57

Carolina Panthers 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(5:39) 5-M.Palardy punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Jansen, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.59 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 57, worth -2.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.26 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 17, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP