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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 8 at the 34

Carolina Panthers 10 – Los Angeles Rams 23

What Actually Happened

(:16) 4-J.Slye 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +0.32 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.43 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 34, worth -1.81 EP
KICK +0.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 44, worth -2.50 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model