Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 16 at the 61

Carolina Panthers 0 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(9:43) 5-M.Palardy punts 58 yards to LA 3, Center-44-J.Jansen. 19-J.Natson to LA 6 for 3 yards (30-N.Jamerson). PENALTY on LA-50-S.Ebukam, Unnecessary Roughness, 3 yards, enforced at LA 6.

The Three Options

GO -1.61 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.02 EP
73% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 61, worth -3.34 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model