4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 3 at the 9

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(9:00) 7-H.Butker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +2.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.47 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 9, worth -0.24 EP
KICK +1.54 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.07 EP