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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 15 at the 17

Kansas City Chiefs 37 – Jacksonville Jaguars 19

What Actually Happened

(3:38) 7-H.Butker 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.16 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.05 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 17, worth -0.54 EP
KICK +1.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 27, worth -0.96 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model