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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 15 at the 51

Kansas City Chiefs 37 – Jacksonville Jaguars 19

What Actually Happened

(5:34) 2-D.Colquitt punts 51 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.64 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.36 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 51, worth -2.30 EP
KICK -1.17 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.30 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 14, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model