Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 13 at the 81

Jacksonville Jaguars 13 – Kansas City Chiefs 30

(:23) 9-L.Cooke punts 48 yards to KC 33, Center-46-M.Orzech, fair catch by 17-M.Hardman.

The Three Options

GO -2.92 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.28 EP
70% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 81, worth -4.69 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model