4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 5 at the 5

Jacksonville Jaguars 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 20

What Actually Happened

(4:25) 4-J.Lambo 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +2.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.07 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 5, worth -0.07 EP
KICK +2.07 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21, worth -0.59 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model