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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 2 at the 19

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 17

What Actually Happened

(11:39) 4-J.Lambo 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +2.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.98 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 19, worth -0.71 EP
KICK +1.72 EP
What Happened
  • 91% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 29, worth -1.24 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP