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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 6 at the 29

New Orleans Saints 24 – Houston Texans 21

What Actually Happened

(:55) 3-W.Lutz 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +0.13 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +1.42 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 29, worth -0.66 EP
KICK +1.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.39 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 39, worth -1.06 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model