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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 13 at the 57

New Orleans Saints 24 – Houston Texans 21

What Actually Happened

(7:53) 6-T.Morstead punts 53 yards to HOU 4, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.26 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.64 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 57, worth -2.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 17, worth -0.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model