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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 9 at the 14

New Orleans Saints 0 – Houston Texans 7

What Actually Happened

(9:27) 3-W.Lutz 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +1.80 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.94 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 14, worth +0.04 EP
KICK +2.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 24, worth -0.75 EP
PUNT +0.26 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model