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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 1 at the 57

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(4:56) 4-A.Lee punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-46-A.Brewer, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.99 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.61 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 57, worth -2.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.41 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 17, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.41 EP