Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 7 at the 73

Arizona Cardinals 3 – Detroit Lions 17

What Actually Happened

(9:57) 4-A.Lee punts 43 yards to DET 30, Center-46-A.Brewer. 39-J.Agnew to DET 40 for 10 yards (16-T.Sherfield). PENALTY on DET-30-D.Virgin, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DET 30.

The Three Options

GO -1.78 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.73 EP
59% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 73, worth -4.21 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model