Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 10 at the 64

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Detroit Lions 17

What Actually Happened

(1:49) 4-A.Lee punts 53 yards to DET 11, Center-46-A.Brewer. 39-J.Agnew MUFFS catch, touched at DET 11, RECOVERED by ARI-16-T.Sherfield at DET 8. Penalty on DET-27-J.Coleman, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined.

The Three Options

GO -1.33 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.46 EP
66% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 64, worth -3.29 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model