4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 8 at the 82

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Detroit Lions 3

What Actually Happened

(13:19) 4-A.Lee punts 33 yards to DET 49, Center-46-A.Brewer, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.24 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.34 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 82, worth -4.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -1.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 40, worth -1.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model