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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 8 at the 37

Detroit Lions 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(14:12) 5-M.Prater 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO -0.10 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.89 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 37, worth -2.18 EP
KICK +0.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 46, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model