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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 19 at the 41

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Minnesota Vikings 14

What Actually Happened

(2:38) 5-M.Bosher punts 33 yards to MIN 8, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 12-C.Beebe.

The Three Options

GO -0.91 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.27 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 41, worth -2.38 EP
KICK -0.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -3.02 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 12, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model