4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 10 at the 77

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Minnesota Vikings 28

What Actually Happened

(:03) 5-M.Bosher punts 52 yards to MIN 25, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 12-C.Beebe.

The Three Options

GO -2.49 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.20 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 77, worth -4.45 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 34, worth -1.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model