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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 10 at the 90

Minnesota Vikings 21 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(:49) 2-B.Colquitt punts 57 yards to ATL 33, Center-58-A.Cutting. 38-K.Barner to ATL 45 for 12 yards (40-K.Brothers).

The Three Options

GO -2.96 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.29 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 90, worth -4.80 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -1.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 47, worth -1.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model