Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 20 at the 68

Minnesota Vikings 14 – Atlanta Falcons 0

(12:33) 2-B.Colquitt punts 51 yards to ATL 17, Center-58-A.Cutting. 38-K.Barner to ATL 28 for 11 yards (27-J.Kearse; 50-E.Wilson).

The Three Options

GO -2.09 EP

24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +3.03 EP
76% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 68, worth -3.70 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model