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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Los Angeles Rams
4th & 8 at the 47
Los Angeles Rams 0 – New England Patriots 0
What Actually Happened
(3:32) 6-J.Hekker punts 28 yards to NE 19, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.
The Three Options
GO
+0.10 EP
-
36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +4.09 EP
- 64% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 47, worth -2.20 EP
KICK
-0.36 EP
- 39% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.74 EP
- 61% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.33 EP
PUNT
+0.59 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
- New England Patriots would take over around their own 13, worth +0.59 EP
The Verdict
Chose PUNT
✓ matched the model
