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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 24

New England Patriots 10 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(1:16) 3-S.Gostkowski 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +0.83 EP
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +1.50 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24, worth -0.62 EP
KICK +1.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.26 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 34, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model