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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 4 at the 44

New England Patriots 3 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(14:57) 6-R.Allen punts 37 yards to LA 7, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-49-J.Cardona.

The Three Options

GO +0.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.30 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 44, worth -2.01 EP
KICK -0.40 EP
  • 46% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.56 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 12, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP