4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 16 at the 35

Los Angeles Rams 0 – New England Patriots 3

What Actually Happened

(2:15) 4-G.Zuerlein 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO -0.07 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.80 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 35, worth -1.71 EP
KICK +0.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 45, worth -2.31 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model