Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 8 at the 71

Los Angeles Rams 0 – New England Patriots 0

(11:25) 6-J.Hekker punts 54 yards to NE 17, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 11-J.Edelman to NE 12 for -5 yards (50-S.Ebukam).

The Three Options

GO -1.48 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +2.30 EP
60% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 71, worth -3.94 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model