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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 10 at the 49

Los Angeles Rams 0 – New England Patriots 3

What Actually Happened

(7:59) 6-J.Hekker punts 39 yards to NE 10, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 11-J.Edelman ran ob at NE 17 for 7 yards (82-J.Mundt).

The Three Options

GO -0.38 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.77 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.46 EP
KICK -0.89 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.48 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 14, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model