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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 8 at the 68

Philadelphia Eagles 14 – New Orleans Saints 20

What Actually Happened

(8:45) 1-C.Johnston punts 43 yards to NO 25, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 11-T.Lewis.

The Three Options

GO -1.68 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.78 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 68, worth -3.76 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 26, worth -1.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model