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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 4 at the 21

New Orleans Saints 17 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

What Actually Happened

(10:32) 3-W.Lutz 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +1.71 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.77 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21, worth -0.86 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
What Happened
  • 90% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 31, worth -1.38 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model